Keys to avoiding an upset in College Station
Kentucky is the solid favorite going into Tuesday night's game with Texas A&M at Reed Arena in College Station but considering that road conference games can often be tricky and unpredictable, and that the Aggies are playing some of their best basketball of the season, the 'Cats will need to be on guard.
Here are some keys for Kentucky to avoid an upset and continue to build its resume for the NCAA tournament.
Fouls, free throws, and Nick Richards ... Foul trouble has sometimes been a problem for Kentucky. Texas A&M draws the 69th most fouls in Division I (out of 350+ teams) and shoots the 49th most free throws, so it in the top 15 percent of teams when it comes to getting to the charity stripe. On the season Texas A&M has made more free throws (393) than its opponents have attempted (376). The Aggies don't shoot very well from the line (.691) but 569 attempts is a lot. Texas A&M is a very bad offensive team, averaging just 0.797 points per possession in the halfcourt. They're one of the worst teams in the country at grinding out points in halfcourt sets. So UK can't put them at the line a lot. If they don't, they should be fine.
At the same time, Texas A&M is 27th in the country in free throws allowed at less than 15 per game. That has been a big discrepancy in the Aggies' favor for most of the season. UK only attempted 10 free throws against Florida and will want more opportunities than that on Tuesday night. A&M only allows 64.5 points per game so any freebies will be important.
Keeping Richards out of foul trouble in particular is important, defensively more than anything else. Two of the very few things A&M does well offensively are post ups and offensive rebound put backs so the 'Cats need his defense in the paint.
Ashton Hagans ... He doesn't have to play perfect and UK can survive with some turnovers but if he gives it away six times or more as he did against Florida this could get dicey. That's possible not only because of his turnover issues recently but also because Texas A&M has been very good at forcing turnovers lately. The Aggies have forced 21, 19, and 16 turnovers during its present three-game winning streak against Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi State.
UK has struggled with late game turnovers that have made some recent contests unnecessarily close. Because the Aggies are better at turning teams over than others that UK has faced recently, this is definitely something to watch in any game that's within even 10-12 points in the second half.
Defend Wendell Mitchell ... Texas A&M does not have one player who is averaging 12 points per game on the season but several players have stepped up their game recently, as you would imagine in a three-game win streak. Wendell Mitchell in particular has been an offensive weapon of late. He is 9/19 from three-point range over A&M's last three games and has scored 13, 18, and 20 points in those wins respectively. Mitchell is not a good scorer in a structured offense but he's dangerous in the open court and knocks down shots in transition. So don't be fooled by his awful 31-percent field goal number for the season. He has scored a dozen or more points in seven of A&M's last eight games. And he is a gunner, sometimes attempting between seven and 14 (he was 4/14 from 3 in a 63-58 win against Tennessee). Mitchell won't be close to UK's biggest challenge of the season, or so he wouldn't seem to be. But he's playing well.